Outstanding-Onset
0xc3acf5878a03523d09a3ac859943445d7baeb964
Outstanding-Onset: +$489K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 24%–76%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$489K
return +84.3%
Settled bets
10
$581K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 24%–76%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$470K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$71K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$51K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Jaguars
@ 46¢
Jaguars vs. Bengals |
Jaguars vs. Bengals | $9.7K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 50¢
Browns vs. Buccaneers |
Browns vs. Buccaneers | $63K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Minnesota Twins
@ 45¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins |
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins | $63K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Cleveland Guardians
@ 23¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins | $1.6K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Pittsburgh Pirates
@ 34¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs | $4.6K |
| Sep 2 | BUY San Diego Padres
@ 52¢
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds |
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds | $3.1K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Philadelphia Phillies
@ 54¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels | $1.6K |
| Aug 28 | BUY San Francisco Giants
@ 41¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | $205K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.