Normal-Distance-Apparatus
Skill vs luck
Normal-Distance-Apparatus on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 18% (95% range 5%–48%) · profit −$15K. Skill vs luck: worse than luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Normal-Distance-Apparatus: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc3744a19f42266ce6fa2736f52eae6e178b20f3e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Normal-Distance-Apparatus: −$15K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 18% (95% range 5%–48%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$15K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Lakers @ 56¢ | Lakers vs. Warriors ↗ | $9.2K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 54¢
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5 |
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5 | $2.4K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 52¢
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5 |
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5 |
Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5 | $1.7K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 47¢
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 |
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 | $7.9K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5 |
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5 | $20K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 |
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 106.5 |
Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 106.5 | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.