Threadbare-Skunk

0xc2e7800b5af46e6093872b177b7a5e7f0563be51

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$144K
return +14.4%
Settled bets
22
$1.00M staked
Won
77.3%
95% range 57%–90%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$86K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$58K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 8 Bought Alexander Zverev at 89¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi $90K
Sep 5 Bought Yes at 43¢
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-09-05?
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-09-05? $17K
Sep 5 Bought Yes at 44¢
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-09-05?
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-09-05? $8.2K
Sep 5 Bought Naomi Osaka at 76¢
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens $18K
Sep 5 Bought Naomi Osaka at 76¢
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens $48K
Sep 5 Bought Naomi Osaka at 75¢
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens $37K
Sep 5 Bought Amanda Anisimova at 85¢
US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova
US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova $43K
Sep 4 Bought Daniil Medvedev at 74¢
US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech
US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech $37K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed