Avaricious-Calculation
0xc0f1388fdb14503c3bdf7c244346c98b57208680
Avaricious-Calculation: −$2.8K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 33%–79%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.8K
return −12.1%
Settled bets
14
$24K staked
Won
57.1%
95% range 33%–79%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$878
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$1.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | BUY ENCE
@ 45¢
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Sangal (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #7 Group B |
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Sangal (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #7 Group B | $1.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY MIBR
@ 76¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner | $4.4K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 73¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Sep 17 | BUY NIP
@ 91¢
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs NIP (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A |
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs NIP (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A | $1.6K |
| Aug 29 | BUY Top Esports
@ 67¢
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
| Aug 29 | SELL UPGRADE
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Aug 28 | BUY ILLYRIANS
@ 50¢
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #8 Group B |
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #8 Group B | $2.2K |
| Aug 28 | BUY DENDELE CS
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.