Oblong-Ammunition

0xc0b8b9699c1e4aac546a3682abd4556a70a087c1

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Oblong-Ammunition: +$2.7K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 54% (95% range 35%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.7K
return +9.6%
Settled bets
24
$29K staked
Won
54.2%
95% range 35%–72%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$2.7K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 13 BUY Under @ 76¢
Ohio State vs. Texas: O/U 50.5
Ohio State vs. Texas: O/U 50.5 $2.8K
Sep 13 BUY Boise State @ 99¢
Memphis vs. Boise State
Memphis vs. Boise State $3.2K
Sep 13 SELL Tampa Bay Rays @ 99.9¢
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays $3.2K
Sep 12 SELL Brandon Moreno @ 99.9¢
Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card)
Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card) $2.4K
Sep 12 SELL Alabama @ 98¢
Alabama vs. Kentucky
Alabama vs. Kentucky $1.3K
Sep 12 BUY Alabama @ 91¢
Alabama vs. Kentucky
Alabama vs. Kentucky $1.2K
Sep 12 SELL Oklahoma State @ 99.9¢
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State $1.1K
Sep 12 BUY Hull City AFC @ 87¢
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) $2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed