Outstanding-Change
Skill vs luck
Outstanding-Change on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$1.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Outstanding-Change: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc03fd7f514a6d52fe0b8291846717724f6c1249d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Outstanding-Change: +$1.9K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$1.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | SELL No @ 70¢ | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Over @ 54¢ | Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Yes @ 66¢ | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.3K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.