Royal-Combination

0xbcc321b6336117432f4e9d2d28b20d8b6795ac9c

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Royal-Combination: −$4.9K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 48%–89%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$4.9K
return −7.4%
Settled bets
15
$66K staked
Won
73.3%
95% range 48%–89%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$4.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Team Yandex @ 92¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner $13K
Oct 10 BUY Team Yandex @ 80¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner $8.4K
Oct 10 BUY Cupid Esports @ 30¢
LoL: Cupid Esports vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs
LoL: Cupid Esports vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs $1.5K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 68¢
Games Total: O/U 4.5
Games Total: O/U 4.5 $1.5K
Oct 5 BUY Maryville University @ 76¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports - Game 3 Winner $1.1K
Oct 5 BUY Maryville University @ 76¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports - Game 2 Winner $1.2K
Oct 5 BUY Maryville University @ 88¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs
LoL: Maryville University vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs $3.9K
Oct 1 BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition @ 93¢
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage $1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed