Slow-Shovel

0xbbf0cf01fa08b9d09a7fb540840b1752ea0fb554

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Slow-Shovel: −$22K on 55 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 45%–70%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$22K
return −11.3%
Settled bets
55
$198K staked
Won
58.2%
95% range 45%–70%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 51 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$4.6K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$18K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 17 BUY Miami Marlins @ 72¢
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks $5.4K
Sep 17 BUY Kansas City Royals @ 59¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros $4.7K
Sep 16 BUY Philadelphia Phillies @ 82¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals $5.1K
Sep 16 BUY New York Yankees @ 42¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins $1.1K
Sep 16 BUY Minnesota Twins @ 91¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins $5.1K
Sep 16 SELL Minnesota Twins @ 89¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins $1.2K
Sep 16 BUY Minnesota Twins @ 91¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins $6.3K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 56¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? $2.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed