Wry-Portion-Wrong
0xba437745c058346319971651197bef40c3cbc6c0
Wry-Portion-Wrong: −$22K on 80 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 39%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −16.2%
Settled bets
80
$134K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 39%–61%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 80 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$14K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$5.2K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$2.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Vitality
@ 72¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY T1
@ 62¢
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Maryville University
@ 80¢
Game Handicap: CPD (-2.5) vs Maryville University (+2.5) |
Game Handicap: CPD (-2.5) vs Maryville University (+2.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 59¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Nongshim RedForce
@ 51¢
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner |
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY 9z
@ 68¢
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Under
@ 68¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5 |
Games Total: O/U 2.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY LYON
@ 57¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.