Same-Occupation
0xb7cd8599d690b62e5a50e9cabacbbf900d086827
Same-Occupation: −$8.2K on 30 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 66%–93%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$8.2K
return −6.0%
Settled bets
30
$137K staked
Won
83.3%
95% range 66%–93%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 26 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$8.2K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$53
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$21
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 9? | $1.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8? | $5.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 1? | $8.3K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 19? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 19? | $4.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? | $14K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15? | $23K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14? | $3.8K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 14? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 14? | $3.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.