Front-Gate

0xb70c4f38ce25d986a9da3f3190cbae87660934ca

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Front-Gate: −$7.4K on 39 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 54%–81%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$7.4K
return −2.8%
Settled bets
39
$259K staked
Won
69.2%
95% range 54%–81%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 36 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$7.7K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$3.2K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$2.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Anubis Gaming @ 74¢
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Anubis Gaming (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Anubis Gaming (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs $2.5K
Oct 7 BUY G2 NORD @ 94¢
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs $1.5K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 98¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? $2.0K
Oct 5 BUY JD Gaming @ 85¢
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage $3.1K
Oct 5 BUY JD Gaming @ 84¢
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage $2.2K
Sep 27 BUY DN SOOPers Challengers @ 93¢
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner $2.5K
Sep 26 BUY LYON @ 86¢
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs $4.0K
Sep 24 BUY Guinea Pink @ 97¢
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs $3.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed