Shameful-Sundae
0xb6b8dfec3ed9a46dfd9088e4fef89c08a95e149b
Shameful-Sundae: −$14K on 32 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 31%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$14K
return −27.5%
Settled bets
32
$52K staked
Won
46.9%
95% range 31%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$13K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$1.6K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$3.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 43¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $2.2K |
| Oct 4 | SELL LYON
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner | $5.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 84¢
LoL: LGD Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: LGD Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.7K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Team Nemesis
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $5.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY T1 Academy
@ 83¢
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A |
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A | $1.7K |
| Sep 20 | BUY KT Rolster Challengers
@ 88¢
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B |
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B | $1.3K |
| Sep 20 | BUY DN SOOPers Challengers
@ 95¢
LoL: Fuego vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A |
LoL: Fuego vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A | $2.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Fuego
@ 84¢
LoL: 9z Globant vs Fuego (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Americas Qualifier Playoffs |
LoL: 9z Globant vs Fuego (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Americas Qualifier Playoffs | $3.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.