Hard-Ironclad
0xb595d09ce5bbc4d39e3b3d04e80c402d2c8d5922
Hard-Ironclad: +$17K on 179 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 98% (95% range 94%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$17K
return +2.6%
Settled bets
179
$662K staked
Won
97.8%
95% range 94%–99%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 179 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$6.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$10K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$587
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-10-11? |
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-10-11? | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10? |
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10? | $1.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Under
@ 98¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 |
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 | $2.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-10-10? | $7.5K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Júbilo Iwata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? |
Will Júbilo Iwata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 88¢
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 |
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 99¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 | $2.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? |
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.