Calculating-Millennium
0xb517cf918d88602c084a040037cc3ffe1355434b
Calculating-Millennium: −$4.6K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 27%–63%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.6K
return −11.9%
Settled bets
25
$38K staked
Won
44.0%
95% range 27%–63%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$726
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$5.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 46¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner | $3.7K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 82¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 22¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 11 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 74¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $2.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 85¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 46¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Aurora
@ 58¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.