Foolish-Sea
Skill vs luck
Foolish-Sea on Polymarket: 24 settled bets · won 42% (95% range 25%–61%) · profit −$11K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Foolish-Sea: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb4516f9562b5f5bbd25959009cf774818eb1d7b3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Foolish-Sea: −$11K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 25%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 24 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$11K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Rockets @ 78¢ | Thunder vs. Rockets ↗ | $2.3K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Thunder @ 36¢ | Thunder vs. Rockets ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Pelicans @ 82¢ | Hawks vs. Pelicans ↗ | $1.8K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | Spread: Rockets (-2.5) ↗ | $1.4K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | Spread: Rockets (-2.5) ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Pelicans @ 64¢ | Hawks vs. Pelicans ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 31 | BUY 76ers @ 58¢ | 76ers vs. Hornets ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 31 | BUY 76ers @ 58¢ | 76ers vs. Hornets ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.