Harmless-Demur
0xb340ecd9e8b681562affbafe4a87514b31261ad1
Harmless-Demur: −$13K on 68 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 59%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$13K
return −2.6%
Settled bets
68
$482K staked
Won
70.6%
95% range 59%–80%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 39 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$22K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$9.3K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | BUY Under
@ 96¢
Real Salt Lake vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 5.5 |
Real Salt Lake vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 5.5 | $3.0K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Tampa Bay Rays
@ 99.9¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays | $11K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Tampa Bay Rays
@ 54¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays | $4.1K |
| Sep 19 | BUY
@ 91¢
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 0.5 AND VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5 AND Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 0.5 AND Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5 |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 0.5 AND VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5 AND Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 0.5 AND Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5 | $2.5K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-18? |
Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-18? | $4.3K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Under
@ 81¢
AS Monaco FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 |
AS Monaco FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 | $3.5K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Under
@ 87¢
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 7.5 |
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 7.5 | $5.0K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Minnesota Twins
@ 18¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels |
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.