Awesome-Availability
0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705
Awesome-Availability: −$32K on 47 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 45%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$32K
return −23.4%
Settled bets
47
$136K staked
Won
59.6%
95% range 45%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 41 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$14K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$14K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 76¢
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election? |
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon? |
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon? | $2.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 84¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire? |
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire? | $7.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 54¢
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027? |
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027? | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 40¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 38¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | $4.7K |
| Sep 28 | SELL No
@ 70¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? |
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | $1.2K |
| Sep 27 | SELL Yes
@ 80¢
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election? |
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.