Unusual-Insurrection
0xb039d14a66d31e0a46c6965acf9895fcdbc9c6d9
Unusual-Insurrection: −$1.2K on 42 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 42%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$1.2K
return −2.3%
Settled bets
42
$53K staked
Won
57.1%
95% range 42%–71%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$1.7K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$3.7K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$788
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY HANJIN BRION
@ 90¢
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team WE
@ 94¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team WE (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team WE (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team WE
@ 95¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team WE (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team WE (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY BNK FEARX
@ 96¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $2.0K |
| Sep 27 | SELL Solary
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Solary
@ 93¢
LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Solary vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Karmine Corp Blue
@ 63¢
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs White Dragons (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage |
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs White Dragons (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage | $2.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Dplus KIA Challengers
@ 99.9¢
LoL: FENNEL vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group C |
LoL: FENNEL vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group C | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.