Tough-Surface
0xafd492974cd531aae7786210438ae46b42047e61
Tough-Surface: −$3.0K on 31 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 32%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$3.0K
return −3.0%
Settled bets
31
$101K staked
Won
48.4%
95% range 32%–65%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 29 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$4.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$12K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner | $4.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Cloud9
@ 54¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | $11K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Flyers
@ 38¢
Flyers vs. Devils |
Flyers vs. Devils | $2.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Seahawks
@ 53¢
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) |
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) | $1.6K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Falcons
@ 52¢
Spread: Packers (-5.5) |
Spread: Packers (-5.5) | $1.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY KC
@ 51¢
Spread: KC (-5.5) |
Spread: KC (-5.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Vitality
@ 67¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $4.6K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Vitality
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $4.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.