Fickle-Egghead
0xaf9740bfeae0aa83bda830a6536275603b342cb3
Fickle-Egghead: +$6.0K on 44 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 71%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$6.0K
return +3.4%
Settled bets
44
$175K staked
Won
84.1%
95% range 71%–92%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 29 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$3.5K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- +$233
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Over
@ 99¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 | $6.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 97¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 | $4.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 99¢
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 |
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 99¢
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 |
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Under
@ 99¢
France vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 |
France vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Denmark vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 |
Denmark vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 | $4.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Under
@ 99¢
Denmark vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 |
Denmark vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.