Disloyal-Spree

0xaf0e578b7a4fcc8132375e2fa7d0d22d31a73197

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Disloyal-Spree: +$2.8K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 55%–95%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.8K
return +12.4%
Settled bets
12
$23K staked
Won
83.3%
95% range 55%–95%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$693
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$1.7K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$1.8K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Under @ 90¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 5.5
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 5.5 $1.1K
Oct 10 BUY Yes @ 90¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.0K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 89¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06?
Will England win on 2026-10-06? $2.1K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 57¢
Will England win on 2026-10-03?
Will England win on 2026-10-03? $1.0K
Oct 3 BUY No @ 81¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-03?
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-03? $1.0K
Sep 24 BUY Up @ 93¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET $1.1K
Sep 24 BUY Up @ 89¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET $1.6K
Sep 20 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? $4.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed