Narrow-Peninsula
0xaec38658ae47a6aabe8839f40e6d7da7996222df
Narrow-Peninsula: −$1.6K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 49%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$1.6K
return −9.9%
Settled bets
10
$16K staked
Won
80.0%
95% range 49%–94%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$986
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$116
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? |
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | $2.5K |
| Sep 28 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? |
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? | $2.1K |
| Sep 26 | BUY No
@ 95¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 68¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.5K |
| Sep 21 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? |
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | $2.9K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 95¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs |
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20? |
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20? | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes
@ 98¢
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | $5.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.