Variable-Ski
0xaebf3acc7c9add4928bd218f96de5cf64987e1ca
Variable-Ski: −$45K on 62 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 27% (95% range 18%–40%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$45K
return −30.0%
Settled bets
62
$149K staked
Won
27.4%
95% range 18%–40%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 43 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$22K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$17K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$6.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY MOUZ
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 51¢
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score |
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Sangal
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sangal (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sangal (+1.5) | $2.2K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Croatia vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score |
Croatia vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Aurora Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06? | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 58¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score |
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.