Identical-Surface

0xae3310191c86352f8f657bf762e91c02cfb2f57f

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Identical-Surface: +$959 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$959
return +25.9%
Settled bets
5
$3.7K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$19
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$993
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$15
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 SELL Team Liquid @ 99¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner $1.5K
Sep 11 BUY KT Rolster Challengers @ 98¢
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 4 Winner
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 4 Winner $1.0K
Sep 5 BUY Gen.G @ 74¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner $2.7K
Aug 28 SELL HANJIN BRION @ 99.9¢
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner $1.0K
Aug 26 SELL KT Rolster @ 98¢
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner $1.0K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed