Detailed-Poison
0xad96914d7762dac84ebbabafe366ae8ff24dd498
Detailed-Poison: −$624 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$624
return −10.5%
Settled bets
3
$6.0K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 6%–79%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$85
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$700
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$8
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | $29K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 85¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $2.9K |
| Sep 23 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | $8.4K |
| Sep 22 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $5.9K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 94¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
GTA 6 launch postponed again? | $1.9K |
| Sep 11 | SELL No
@ 99.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $40K |
| Sep 11 | SELL No
@ 99.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $134K |
| Aug 26 | BUY No
@ 89¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
GTA 6 launch postponed again? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.