Bare-Knock

0xad69a788e183e06d2fb63a9e77a4c37765ea7397

Skill vs luck

Bare-Knock on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 63% (95% range 31%–86%) · profit −$2.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Bare-Knock: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xad69a788e183e06d2fb63a9e77a4c37765ea7397. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Bare-Knock: −$2.9K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 31%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$2.9K

return −16.7%

Settled bets

$18K staked

Won

62.5%

95% range 31%–86%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 3: −$569
Sep 3 – Sep 17: +$646
Sep 17 – Oct 1: +$582
Oct 15 – Oct 29: −$3.6K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +1.3% (2,530 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 28	BUY Team Yandex @ 92¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs ↗	$1.4K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 69¢ Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗	$2.8K
Oct 26	BUY Team Liquid @ 23¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	$2.4K
Oct 22	BUY Team Liquid @ 75¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	$2.5K
Sep 27	BUY Team Yandex @ 77¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner	$1.9K
Sep 7	BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 77¢ LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	$2.2K
Sep 4	BUY Yes @ 55¢ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	$1.6K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793257219, computed 2026-10-29 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793257219 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed