Enchanted-Foal

0xabb89972b21b304c1bed2bf26f35c8741ac9bba3

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Enchanted-Foal: +$28K on 124 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 37%–54%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$28K
return +4.2%
Settled bets
124
$664K staked
Won
45.2%
95% range 37%–54%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 79 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$20K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$9.7K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$2.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 27 BUY Dolphins @ 56¢
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) $1.1K
Sep 26 SELL Yes @ 51¢
Will Plymouth Argyle FC win on 2026-09-26?
Will Plymouth Argyle FC win on 2026-09-26? $2.1K
Sep 26 BUY Yes @ 42¢
Will Blaublitz Akita win on 2026-09-26?
Will Blaublitz Akita win on 2026-09-26? $1.9K
Sep 25 BUY Army @ 45¢
Spread: Army (-3.5)
Spread: Army (-3.5) $2.8K
Sep 25 BUY Boston Red Sox @ 47¢
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox $8.7K
Sep 24 BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 43¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees $3.6K
Sep 24 BUY Miami Marlins @ 30¢
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs $3.0K
Sep 24 BUY Miami Marlins @ 45¢
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs $8.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed