Lively-Stirfry
0xaa57cd0782fb4583206ce547379e6442db61a128
Lively-Stirfry: +$4.7K on 65 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 35%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$4.7K
return +4.6%
Settled bets
65
$102K staked
Won
46.2%
95% range 35%–58%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 31 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$7.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | SELL Ann Li
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li |
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 99.9¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY LYON
@ 51¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Chiefs
@ 69¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs vs. Raiders | $1.5K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Alex de Minaur
@ 58¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev |
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Aurora Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | SELL fnatic
@ 91¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY fnatic
@ 79¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.