Unrealistic-Competition-Plover
Skill vs luck
Unrealistic-Competition-Plover on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 57%–100%) · profit +$784. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unrealistic-Competition-Plover: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa98a9d23e7211c22d2259b68b1bc9d47b3013b92. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unrealistic-Competition-Plover: +$784 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 57%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- +$744
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$40
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 98¢ | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No
@ 71¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No
@ 99.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October? |
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October? | $1.2K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 99.4¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 84¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18? |
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18? | $3.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 94¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 5-11? |
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 5-11? | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No @ 76¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No @ 75¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $14K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.