Sudden-Dugout-Disconnection
0xa96274cc1b321afc8cbdc1ba07f7e2d471e6f7c8
Sudden-Dugout-Disconnection: −$16K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 28%–68%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$16K
return −4.2%
Settled bets
21
$393K staked
Won
47.6%
95% range 28%–68%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$92K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$109K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 68¢
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-10-11? |
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-10-11? | $17K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 44¢
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-10-11? |
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-10-11? | $4.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 52¢
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-10-10? |
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-10-10? | $9.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 53¢
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-10-10? |
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-10-10? | $7.5K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 56¢
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-10-10? |
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-10-10? | $3.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 59¢
Will Cardiff City FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Cardiff City FC win on 2026-10-10? | $4.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 33¢
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-10-10? | $3.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 39¢
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-10-10? |
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-10-10? | $4.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.