Carefree-Increase
0xa21de05abe49bd242f45e7aefe34be04c8f2a2b3
Carefree-Increase: −$636 on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 39%–84%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$636
return −4.3%
Settled bets
14
$15K staked
Won
64.3%
95% range 39%–84%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$510
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$126
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | SELL Eva Lys
@ 24¢
China Open: Eva Lys vs Xinran Sun |
China Open: Eva Lys vs Xinran Sun | $1.3K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Yue Yuan
@ 80¢
China Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Yue Yuan |
China Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Yue Yuan | $1.0K |
| Sep 28 | SELL Tomas Machac
@ 72¢
China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac |
China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac | $2.2K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Daniil Medvedev
@ 82¢
Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong |
Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong | $1.5K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Denis Shapovalov
@ 66¢
Chengdu Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Denis Shapovalov |
Chengdu Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Denis Shapovalov | $1.8K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Katie Volynets
@ 43¢
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell |
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell | $2.7K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Katie Volynets
@ 84¢
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell |
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell | $3.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL No
@ 56¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.