Trusting-Meaning
Skill vs luck
Trusting-Meaning on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$929. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Trusting-Meaning: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa1a8bac29a0524cf3b217bb2fc464aecf5434dc6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Trusting-Meaning: +$929 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$495
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- +$435
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 92¢ | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? |
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? | $1.1K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.