Circular-Audit-Railway

0xa164b901678d14b57b89a8d4e928956fe46a8b02

Skill vs luck

Circular-Audit-Railway on Polymarket: 24 settled bets · won 54% (95% range 35%–72%) · profit +$58K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Circular-Audit-Railway: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa164b901678d14b57b89a8d4e928956fe46a8b02. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Circular-Audit-Railway: +$58K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 54% (95% range 35%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$58K

return +21.6%

Settled bets

$270K staked

Won

54.2%

95% range 35%–72%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 24 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 3 – Oct 17: +$62K
Oct 17 – Nov 1: −$3.6K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.8% (2,670 positions).

In the live feed

BUY $9.7K

@ 27¢

11m ago

Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Frosinone Calcio O/U 5.5 Corners AND Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 4.5 Corners

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 31	BUY Yes @ 49¢ Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31? ↗	$50K
Oct 31	BUY @ 28¢ Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-31?	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-31?	$4.8K
Oct 31	BUY Under @ 47¢ Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	$3.1K
Oct 31	BUY Under @ 51¢ AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5	AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 ↗	$5.0K
Oct 31	BUY Yes @ 29¢ Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-31?	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-31?	$12K
Oct 31	BUY Over @ 51¢ Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5	Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5 ↗	$20K
Oct 31	BUY @ 24¢ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	$2.9K
Oct 31	BUY @ 27¢ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	$4.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793516413, computed 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793516413 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed