Adventurous-Custom
0xa08455c829a493054315e40e7817321e8c77bb99
Adventurous-Custom: −$21K on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 26%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$21K
return −8.6%
Settled bets
29
$240K staked
Won
41.4%
95% range 26%–59%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 26 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$11K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$32K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 | BUY Cincinnati Reds
@ 38¢
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | $38K |
| Sep 7 | BUY No
@ 73¢
Will Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? |
Will Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? | $17K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Under
@ 48¢
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 |
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 | $1.4K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Under
@ 48¢
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 |
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 | $17K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Commanders
@ 35¢
Commanders vs. Ravens |
Commanders vs. Ravens | $1.1K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Over
@ 46¢
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 | $2.9K |
| Aug 28 | BUY Washington Mystics
@ 51¢
Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5) |
Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5) | $3.6K |
| Aug 28 | BUY San Francisco Giants
@ 48¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | $15K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.