Better-Winter

0x9cd1f5d1f17a107273a3b4809a1ffede38e96abd

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Better-Winter: −$99K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$99K
return −100.0%
Settled bets
1
$99K staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–79%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 24 – Oct 12
−$99K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 69¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $24K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 62¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $16K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 66¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $8.7K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 75¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $49K

All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed