Gripping-Knife

0x9c52f0c7617df14ebee80780aa3cdf2ef8b81a59

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Gripping-Knife: −$3.2K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 21%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$3.2K
return −19.9%
Settled bets
14
$16K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 21%–67%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$1.1K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$1.0K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$1.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 6 BUY BetBoom Team @ 57¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.1K
Oct 6 BUY Spirit @ 64¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.3K
Oct 6 BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 51¢
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays $1.0K
Oct 5 BUY FURIA @ 67¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.0K
Oct 5 BUY G2 @ 65¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) $2.0K
Oct 3 BUY G2 @ 53¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.1K
Oct 3 BUY Spirit @ 77¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.4K
Sep 25 BUY 1win @ 73¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs $1.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed