Harmful-Nest
0x9b963178d3b8765cfc5af94c00550d6ec6c54389
Harmful-Nest: −$22K on 75 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 38%–60%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −17.5%
Settled bets
75
$126K staked
Won
49.3%
95% range 38%–60%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 66 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$1.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$20K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY MOUZ
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Vitality
@ 73¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | $3.7K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Nemiga
@ 73¢
Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #10 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #10 Playoffs | $2.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY fnatic
@ 52¢
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 71¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $3.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Sangal
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs | $2.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Cupid Esports
@ 67¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.