Miserly-Synod

0x9b3028fd82e6973535c84f202c8311f17c13fb47

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Miserly-Synod: −$19 on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 49%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$19
return −0.1%
Settled bets
10
$32K staked
Won
80.0%
95% range 49%–94%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$275
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$256
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Louisville @ 91¢
Florida State vs. Louisville
Florida State vs. Louisville $7.2K
Oct 9 BUY Under @ 93¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 $2.0K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 97¢
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 0.5
Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 $7.1K
Oct 5 BUY Panthers @ 80¢
Lions vs. Panthers
Lions vs. Panthers $2.0K
Oct 3 BUY Elise Mertens @ 96¢
China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens
China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens $5.0K
Oct 3 BUY Under @ 97¢
Liberty vs. Delaware: O/U 53.5
Liberty vs. Delaware: O/U 53.5 $5.0K
Oct 2 BUY North Texas @ 83¢
North Texas vs. Tulsa
North Texas vs. Tulsa $1.5K
Oct 2 BUY Browns @ 86¢
Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers vs. Browns $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed