Sneaky-Nod-Agony
Skill vs luck
Sneaky-Nod-Agony on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–43%) · profit −$111K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sneaky-Nod-Agony: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9a933a2a83188b28efaf1d07d45228ea6ee82793. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sneaky-Nod-Agony: −$111K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–43%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$111K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? ↗ | $32K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? ↗ | $3.3K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 18 | BUY No @ 40¢ | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? ↗ | $25K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 9¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? |
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? | $8.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 9¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? |
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? | $1.2K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 8¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? |
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17? | $3.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?