Skinny-Elevator
Skill vs luck
Skinny-Elevator on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 73% (95% range 43%–90%) · profit −$3.0K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Skinny-Elevator: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x997cb45c25e94b4ee58c234ce1f211496a0d51f3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Skinny-Elevator: −$3.0K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 43%–90%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$8.7K
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$1.2K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$2.2K
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$6.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Natus Vincere @ 67¢ | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗ | $10K |
| Nov 2 | BUY FURIA
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Nov 2 | BUY FaZe @ 58¢ | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY FURIA @ 52¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA (BO5) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 29 | BUY FURIA
@ 75¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner | $8.1K |
| Oct 25 | BUY TheMongolz
@ 47¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | $4.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY MOUZ
@ 53¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) | $4.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Iberian Soul
@ 54¢
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Iberian Soul (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Iberian Soul (+1.5) | $2.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.