Several-Memo

0x9977760c6bd6f824cac834d1a36ee99478d63020

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Several-Memo: +$567 on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 86%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$567
return +0.5%
Settled bets
23
$114K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 86%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$243
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$322
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$2
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY England @ 99.9¢
Spread: England (-4.5)
Spread: England (-4.5) $2.0K
Sep 20 BUY Under @ 99.74¢
Valencia CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5
Valencia CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5 $5.0K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 99.8¢
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-09-19?
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-09-19? $1.7K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 99.86¢
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-19?
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-19? $3.5K
Sep 19 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Sporting CP vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5
Sporting CP vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5 $4.7K
Sep 19 BUY Over @ 99¢
AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5
AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 $6.9K
Sep 19 BUY Yes @ 99.85¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19? $7.0K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 99.66¢
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? $3.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed