False-Engagement-Lace
Skill vs luck
False-Engagement-Lace on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$6.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “False-Engagement-Lace: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x98ea5d60b234d6345f41e578b4822989fae638a5. Data CC BY 4.0.
False-Engagement-Lace: −$6.1K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$6.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Vitality @ 70¢ | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs ↗ | $21K |
| Oct 29 | BUY New Mexico State
@ 53¢
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State |
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State | $5.8K |
| Oct 29 | BUY New Mexico State
@ 53¢
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State |
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State | $5.7K |
| Oct 25 | BUY
@ 36¢
49ers vs. Falcons AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25? |
49ers vs. Falcons AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25? | $15K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No @ 23¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $3.7K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.