Trusty-Plaintiff
Skill vs luck
Trusty-Plaintiff on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$245. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Trusty-Plaintiff: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x98e657203fefa6e2d3d6cca7353357b76fda42e7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Trusty-Plaintiff: +$245 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$245
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 91¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No @ 88¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? ↗ | $1.8K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?