Cooked-Imprisonment

0x98d52b88dc228a4b49e2514f8d368b4e6c582ec4

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Cooked-Imprisonment: −$6.3K on 50 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 31%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$6.3K
return −3.6%
Settled bets
50
$174K staked
Won
44.0%
95% range 31%–58%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 29 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$2.7K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$14K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$10K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $1.5K
Oct 9 SELL MOUZ @ 81¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $6.2K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 59¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $1.4K
Oct 9 SELL Paper Rex @ 86¢
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs $1.5K
Oct 9 BUY Golden Knights @ 60¢
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights $4.5K
Oct 8 BUY Cowboys @ 81¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $2.5K
Oct 8 BUY Cowboys @ 81¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $3.5K
Oct 8 SELL @ 99.8¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage AND Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage AND Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs $8.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed