Dull-Creation

0x96c2e57df188b3593ea675ebaf31d29d46ed5741

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Dull-Creation: +$41K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 45%–88%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$41K
return +27.3%
Settled bets
14
$151K staked
Won
71.4%
95% range 45%–88%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$19K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$14K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$36K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 28 BUY Yes @ 39¢
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28?
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? $23K
Sep 12 BUY Yes @ 65¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12? $29K
Sep 9 BUY No @ 85¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-09?
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-09? $12K
Sep 8 BUY Yes @ 73¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-08?
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-08? $3.6K
Sep 8 BUY Yes @ 72¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-08?
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-08? $20K
Sep 5 BUY Yes @ 83¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05? $18K
Sep 2 BUY Yes @ 64¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-04?
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-04? $12K
Aug 31 BUY Yes @ 66¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? $6.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed