Absolute-Rations-Nightingale
0x9662e84e28252fa33f2a16ee60bc956299d1ec48
Absolute-Rations-Nightingale: −$6.4K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 15% (95% range 6%–34%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$6.4K
return −20.9%
Settled bets
26
$31K staked
Won
15.4%
95% range 6%–34%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.2K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | BUY Lions
@ 54¢
Spread: Bills (-6.5) |
Spread: Bills (-6.5) | $1.9K |
| Sep 17 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets |
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | $1.2K |
| Sep 17 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Real Betis Balompié leading at halftime? |
Real Betis Balompié leading at halftime? | $8.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels |
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels | $5.5K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Tampa Bay Rays
@ 45¢
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) |
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | $4.6K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Up
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | $4.7K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Detroit Tigers
@ 52¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays |
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | $3.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY New York Yankees
@ 54¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins |
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.