Sparse-Rotation

0x95c6c9a6727ed203e97230dda61ab19a020e1508

Skill vs luck

Sparse-Rotation on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 69% (95% range 44%–86%) · profit +$97K. Skill vs luck: better than luck, though 1 in 40 wallets do this by chance alone. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Sparse-Rotation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x95c6c9a6727ed203e97230dda61ab19a020e1508. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Beat the odds* Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sparse-Rotation: +$97K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 44%–86%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).

Profit

+$97K

return +66.2%

Settled bets

$147K staked

Won

68.8%

95% range 44%–86%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 3 – Sep 18: +$7.1K
Sep 18 – Oct 3: +$55K
Oct 3 – Oct 18: +$35K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.2% (2,088 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 58¢ Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-17?	Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$6.4K
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 58¢ Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-17?	Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$14K
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 42¢ Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-17?	Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$19K
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 44¢ Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-17?	Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$4.8K
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 46¢ Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-10-17?	$6.7K
Oct 17	BUY Yes @ 45¢ Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-10-17?	$4.4K
Oct 11	BUY Over @ 61¢ Los Angeles FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5	Los Angeles FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5	$2.0K
Oct 10	BUY No @ 61¢ Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-09?	Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-09?	$7.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792306820, computed 2026-10-18 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792306820 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed