Wonderful-Scotch
Skill vs luck
Wonderful-Scotch on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 43% (95% range 16%–75%) · profit +$8.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Wonderful-Scotch: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x94c4fe3b18435aa92024c7c1589537fcda3f43ca. Data CC BY 4.0.
Wonderful-Scotch: +$8.3K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$1.4K
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$11K
- Sep 17 – Oct 1
- −$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 29¢
Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? |
Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 63¢
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes? |
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes? | $1.6K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Sep 7 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? |
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? | $5.3K |
| Sep 7 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? |
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? | $8.7K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Yes
@ 10¢
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? |
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? | $1.3K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Yes
@ 38¢
Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? |
Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? | $1.2K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.