Grandiose-Bead
0x9368eb0e0e2ff384095a88960c5a494fed1580a3
Grandiose-Bead: −$20K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 34%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$20K
return −13.1%
Settled bets
18
$150K staked
Won
55.6%
95% range 34%–75%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$30K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$35K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$25K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY B8
@ 56¢
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | $10K |
| Sep 30 | BUY G2
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $12K |
| Sep 21 | BUY B8
@ 60¢
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs | $3.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY B8
@ 60¢
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A |
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A | $7.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY B8
@ 57¢
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs B8 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A |
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs B8 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A | $5.2K |
| Sep 12 | BUY B8
@ 56¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs | $4.9K |
| Sep 12 | BUY B8
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs | $4.2K |
| Sep 11 | BUY 1WIN
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.