Cumbersome-Writer
Skill vs luck
Cumbersome-Writer on Polymarket: 12 settled bets · won 42% (95% range 19%–68%) · profit +$42. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Cumbersome-Writer: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x906efa1f54cb367d0de169221a5febaec0eab533. Data CC BY 4.0.
Cumbersome-Writer: +$42 on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 19%–68%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$42
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Iva Jovic @ 59¢ | Ningbo Open: Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL New Mexico State @ 72¢ | New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Auburn
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Georgia (-17.5) |
Spread: Georgia (-17.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Jeline Vandromme
@ 99.9¢
Set 1 Winner: Alycia Parks vs Jeline Vandromme |
Set 1 Winner: Alycia Parks vs Jeline Vandromme | $1.3K |
| Oct 13 | BUY Bills @ 56¢ | Bills vs. Rams ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 13 | BUY Over
@ 54¢
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 50.5 |
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 50.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Falcons
@ 59¢
Spread: Falcons (-2.5) |
Spread: Falcons (-2.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Under
@ 96¢
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 61.5 |
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 61.5 | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?